# Expected points in basketball

*Expected Points*

How our analysts separate shot quality from shot making: expected against actual points per shot, by zone and play type, for any team, lineup or player.

## What it does

### Shot quality, separated from shot making.

Every shot carries an expected value, xPPS: what the model predicts the shot is worth, based on its location, distance and shot type. Set against the points actually scored, it shows whether a team is creating good looks, converting them, or both.

### Zone by zone, play by play.

The court split into ten zones, and twelve play types grouped as pick-based, movement-based, self-creation and in flow, each with expected against actual.

### Any set of players.

Choose who is on the floor for each side and compare: a pair on against the same pair off, or one lineup against another. The filter counts every shot taken while those players were on court, not only their own.

### Small samples flagged.

Zones with fewer than 20 shots and play types with fewer than 15 plays are marked as low confidence.

### The questions it answers.

Are we getting bad shots, or good shots we are missing? What happens to our pick and roll when a given player sits? Who is taking the shots in each zone, and how well?

### Inside an engagement.

Expected Points is one of the tools our analysts use in client work, above all in performance diagnostics and opponent scouting. What the club receives is the analysis and the argument behind it.

- **Compare.** Two sets of players on the court side by side, zone by zone, with expected and actual points per shot and who took them.
- **Play types.** Points per play against frequency for every play type, above or below expected, here with two players on the floor against both off.
- **Zone table.** Actual minus expected points per shot in each of the ten zones, both sets side by side, with the gap between them.

[Where to see this tool in public data](https://www.clutchdata.net/euroleague/awards)

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Clutch Data · basketball analytics consultancy · info@clutchdata.net · https://www.clutchdata.net/solutions/expected-points